"I've been traveling around the state of Ohio because, as many of you know, I've been thinking about running for governor of the state of Ohio," Kasich told about 150 here last week at a Lincoln Day dinner jointly sponsored by the Republican parties in Seneca and Sandusky counties.

The former congressman from Westerville has been the hottest speaker on the GOP rubber-chicken circuit for two years and has about a dozen county Lincoln Day speeches lined up in February and March.

But political observers from both parties are beginning to wonder just when -- and if -- Kasich actually will declare his candidacy, contending that he can't wait too long if he hopes to seriously challenge the popular incumbent, Democrat Ted Strickland, who already has a $2 million head start.

"I'm pleased that he's delaying his announcement," said Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern. "I hope he delays it even longer."

State Sen. Kevin Coughlin of Cuyahoga Falls announced his GOP candidacy for governor Tuesday and said he won't worry about Kasich until he actually becomes a candidate.

"I'm thinking about Ted Strickland, and if John Kasich gets into the race, then I'll start thinking about him," Coughlin said. "We've got to get our team on the field. The election is coming up on us sooner than people think."

Kasich, who has yet to form the necessary committee to raise and spend money for a gubernatorial campaign, won't say when or even if he will officially get into the race.

"We have team of people, and we're working through when the decision comes," he said after his speech. "It'll be this year. I just can't give you any sort of calendar right now."

Kasich said he is undaunted by Strickland's fundraising lead in a possible match up likely to require both party nominees to raise more than $15 million, and a Quinnipiac University poll last week showing the governor with a 30-point lead over him.

"It's 22 months from the election," Kasich said. "Polls are meaningless now."

During and after his speech, Kasich continued to advocate for the gradual elimination of Ohio's income tax as crucial to stemming the exodus of jobs from the state. The income tax is the largest funding source for state government operations and programs, projected to generate $15.7 billion over the next two fiscal years, or about 40 percent of total revenue.

Kasich said the income tax could be phased out over an unspecified number of years and the state could accommodate the loss of money if "you modernize and privatize and make some hard choices."

Asked how he would fund such things as primary and secondary schools without an income tax, Kasich said, "We'll explain the math to you when I'm ready to explain the math. We're working on stuff. We can get there. I'm absolutely convinced that you can responsibly and effectively phase this out."

Redfern predicted that the income-tax elimination plan could hurt Kasich, equating it to the widely discredited tax-and-expenditure limitation plan advocated in the 2006 gubernatorial race by GOP nominee J. Kenneth Blackwell. The TEL, capping state government spending at 3.5 percent a year, was viewed by lawmakers from both parties as harmful to the state.

"When you have those kinds of ideas -- the Ken Blackwell approach to state government -- you really lose credibility," Redfern said. "Dismantling the income tax across the state would dramatically and negatively impact the lives of Ohioans."

Kasich, a former managing director of Lehman Brothers investment banking division, said any attempt by Strickland to link him to the investment bank's failure on Sept. 15 will not work. Strickland said in December that if Kasich is his opponent he will make Lehman's collapse "part of the discussion."

Kasich responded: "To blame a guy who worked in Columbus, Ohio, for the collapse of Lehman Brothers is like blaming a car dealer in Zanesville for the collapse of General Motors."

jhallett@dispatch.com